by B. Z. Khasru
Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's prime minister, has been under bulldozer at home and abroad to hold talks with her opponents who have been campaigning violently since January for fresh polls under a neutral interim government. So far, the battle has cost the nation more than 100 lives and bruised its thriving economy, but she has vowed not to budge.
What made her so defiant? Who can make her blink?
Acrimony between Hasina and Khaleda Zia, who leads the main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, dates to 1975. That was when Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in a military coup. Hasina thinks Khaleda's late husband, military ruler Gen. Ziaur Rahman, masterminded the putsch in which Bangladesh's founder was killed, along with most of his family members.
Hasina put her venom toward Khaleda on public display way back in 1987 at a National Democratic Institute dinner in San Francisco. Both the ladies, who were then jointly fighting to topple Gen. H.M. Ershad's regime, graced the banquet. They were sitting in the same row, with their American host in between them. When Hasina was asked to introduce herself, she said: "I am Sheikh Hasina. The woman on your left, her husband assassinated my father."
Her latent covenant to wipe off the BNP from the land of the Bengalis took center stage recently after Khaleda's son and heir apparent, Tarique Rahman, hurled personal insults at Hasina's father and family earlier this year. Tarique, who lives in exile in London, called Hasina's father, who championed Bengali causes all his
life, a "friend of Pakistan," and refused to accept him as Bangladesh's founder. He described Hasina as "wrong-headed," and her family as a "curse for Bangladesh." His remarks stoked Hasina's already poisoned mind, prompting her to rebuke Tarique in parliament and admonish Khaleda to rein in her son.
Khaleda, who was prime minister twice and is as iron-willed as Hasina, started the current round of protests to force the government to resign and hold new polls, saying last year's elections were fraud. Hasina is blowing an air of defiance.
Hasina Emboldened
Several domestic factors have fortified Hasina to dare to ignore both domestic and foreign pressures. After her 2008 election victory, she renamed Zia International Airport to wipe off BNP founder Ziaur Rahman's legacy; she threw out Khaleda from a military palace given to her by the government after her military-strongman-turned-president husband's assassination in a 1981 failed mutiny. Hasina hanged several ex-military officers for murdering her father. Most recently, she sent to the gallows two Islamist opposition politicians for atrocities committed during Bangladesh's liberation war in 1971. She got bad press abroad for dispensing what has been termed as flawed justice, but encountered no recriminations at home.
Furthermore, she deftly handled a bloody rampage by Bangladesh's border guards who slaughtered more than 50 top army bosses in 2009. In its wake, Hasina displayed nerves of steel by venturing into the army headquarters in Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital, ignoring advice from her cabinet colleagues to face howling military officers. She has appeased the armed forces by opening up the purse strings for their spending spree. For the first time since the South Asian nation's birth, a ruler spends less time worrying about being toppled by the military than ruling the country.
On top of all this, Hasina has been blessed by emerging regional power configurations. India has replaced the United States as the arbiter in the nation of 165 million Bengalis. With Bangladesh's economy humming and food production keeping up with demand, Hasina no longer needs to trek to Washington with a bowl in her hand.
India, for its part, has made abundantly clear its preference for Hasina over Khaleda. Delhi worked hard to put her back to power in 2008. Nonreligious political philosophy of Hasina's Awami League and her government's India-friendly posture have helped her win Delhi's hearts and minds. India detests Khaleda for she played the
China card and pursued anti-India politics when she was prime minister. She has also built a Great China Wall between herself and Delhi by banding with Jamaat-e-Islami, the potent proponent of a theocratic Bangladesh.
India has other reasons, too. It has been under fire at home for failing to assert its regional supremacy. Stung by such virulent attacks, Delhi has assumed an assertive role in Bangladesh affairs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hell-bent upon upholding India's primacy. Delhi fears Beijing's inroads into Dhaka, which abuts
seven restive Indian states where China can foment trouble. So India now single-mindedly pursues its interests, even if it means defying America. India stumped for Hasina when she decided to go ahead with elections last year excluding Khaleda despite stiff U.S. opposition.
Diplomatic Stalemate
So, efforts by the United States or European Union are unlikely to succeed in ending Bangladesh's political mayhem without India's seal of approval. The road to Dhaka now goes through Delhi bypassing Washington. Even though EU is Bangladesh's largest trading partner, the government will ignore European diktat if it hurts the prime minister's political interest. By going solo, the United States will be unable to sway Hasina, who deeply distrusts Washington. Only Delhi can push Hasina to get off the ground. America can impress upon India that a vibrant multiparty system will make the Bengali nation a fortress of democracy and that a stable Bangladesh will serve both Delhi and Washington well in the long run. The reverse may spell doom and gloom for all.
It, however, remains doubtful at this juncture if India and the United States will see eye- to-eye on Bangladesh in this matter. America thinks Bangladesh can be a well-balanced democracy by having two major political groups in the mold of the United States or Britain. In America's view, such a system should also give space to those seeking to play by the rule, including religious outfits.
On the contrary, India believes its interests are best served by having a political party in power that espouses secular philosophy and adopts a Delhi-friendly policy. Hasina's party -— the Awami League — perfectly fits the bill. So there is no incentive for Delhi to reach out to Khaleda, who tilts toward China. India will be rather happy to see Hasina crushes Khaleda and erases Jamaat-e-Islami. Delhi won't mind at all if Bangladesh ends up with a political system that pretty much resembles the setup that existed in India under Congress.
The United States, meanwhile, has shifted its gear to realpolitik and softened attitude toward Hasina. America no longer at least publicly presses her too hard to accommodate Khaleda. This strategic rethinking stemmed from setbacks the U.S. administration suffered in diplomatic war games with the prime minister. But the new strategy will hardly impress Hasina. To make any headway, Washington must persuade Delhi that it is in India's as well as America's long-term interest to help Bangladesh find a durable mechanism to conduct fair elections and transfer power without street violence.
Durable Solution
A key component in devising such a lasting governance system will be changing the country's constitution to share power with the parliamentary opposition party in the form of a shadow cabinet. Bangladesh's existing winner-takes-all setup leaves the opposition high and dry, which breeds discontent and street protests. By giving the opposition privileges and perks, the government can defuse prospects for mass agitations and ensure its smooth functioning.
In fact, in the wake of her massive election victory in 2008, Hasina expressed her willingness to share power with the opposition. "As winners, we have to deal with everything with a sense of forgiveness and accommodation, instead of vengeance, to take the country forward," she told journalists in Dhaka in her victory speech. She was prepared to give opposition members parliamentary and ministerial posts if they were willing to cooperate with her government.
With the current national and international climates in her favor, Hasina will be less generous. There are also other reasons for her to be a hard nut to crack. She figures Khaleda's ongoing movement will fizzle out. On top of that, her grip on civil service and military as well as judiciary is firm enough to enable her to sail through, as long as the economy marches on at a healthy clip. These realities make the prime minister even more steadfast.
Nevertheless, one may see optimism in the words of a former Bengali diplomat. "Many of the newly independent developing countries are fledgling democracies and perhaps need more time to attain political maturity," Humayun Kabir, Bangladesh's ambassador to Washington, told the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs in 1996. "We regret our inexperience. This may be described as our teething period. What is a mere 25 years in a nation's history? It took the West over 200 years to get to where it is now."
B. Z. Khasru, is author of "Myths and Facts Bangladesh Liberation War" and "The Bangladesh Military Coup and the CIA Link." He is working on a new book, "The King's Men, One Eleven, Minus Two, Secrets Behind Sheikh Hasina's War on Yunus and America."
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